IONQ Moves

IonQ IONQ 32.62 6.19 23.42%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $32.82

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±4.2% ±$1.38	$31.44 – $34.20	$31.17 – $34.47	$29.87 – $35.77
2 sessions	±5.8% ±$1.91	$30.91 – $34.73	$30.50 – $35.14	$28.69 – $36.95
3 sessions	±7.3% ±$2.41	$30.41 – $35.23	$29.94 – $35.70	$27.69 – $37.95
1 week	±9.3% ±$3.06	$29.76 – $35.88	$29.08 – $36.56	$26.30 – $39.34
2 weeks	±12.5% ±$4.09	$28.73 – $36.91	$27.76 – $37.88	$24.09 – $41.55
3 weeks	±15.2% ±$4.99	$27.83 – $37.81	$26.62 – $39.02	$22.28 – $43.36
1 month	±17.6% ±$5.78	$27.04 – $38.60	$25.61 – $40.03	$20.57 – $45.07

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±12.20%

Average actual move

10.18%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 6

Median IV change

-13.87%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
November 06, 2026	±11.33%	+23.42%	2.07×	—
August 06, 2026	±11.04%	-0.53%	0.05×	—
May 07, 2026	±12.46%	-9.30%	0.75×	—
August 07, 2025	±11.31%	-1.79%	0.16×	100.8% → 80.1%
May 08, 2025	±12.44%	+9.27%	0.74×	112.6% → 105.5%
February 27, 2025	±14.62%	-16.77%	1.15×	127.9% → 110.1%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →