KMX Moves

CarMax Inc KMX 52.6 -2.54 -4.61%

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Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $52.83

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.3% ±$1.19	$51.63 – $54.02	$51.40 – $54.26	$50.27 – $55.39
2 sessions	±3.1% ±$1.66	$51.17 – $54.49	$50.82 – $54.84	$49.25 – $56.41
3 sessions	±4.0% ±$2.09	$50.74 – $54.92	$50.33 – $55.32	$48.37 – $57.28
1 week	±5.0% ±$2.66	$50.17 – $55.49	$49.58 – $56.08	$47.17 – $58.49
2 weeks	±7.1% ±$3.73	$49.10 – $56.56	$48.21 – $57.45	$44.87 – $60.79
3 weeks	±8.8% ±$4.62	$48.21 – $57.45	$47.09 – $58.57	$43.07 – $62.59
1 month	±10.4% ±$5.50	$47.32 – $58.33	$45.96 – $59.70	$41.16 – $64.50

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. KMX reports in 29 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±10.28%

Average actual move

9.01%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 4

Median IV change

-36.70%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
June 17, 2026	±12.76%	-8.98%	0.70×	—
June 20, 2025	±9.44%	+6.59%	0.70×	52.0% → 32.9%
April 10, 2025	±10.12%	-17.00%	1.68×	—
December 19, 2024	±8.81%	+3.45%	0.39×	47.4% → 33.2%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →