LPLA Moves

LPL Financial Holdings Inc LPLA 295.51 -5.38 -1.79%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $295.14

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±2.1% ±$6.11	$289.03 – $301.25	$287.79 – $302.49	$282.04 – $308.24
2 sessions	±2.9% ±$8.50	$286.64 – $303.64	$284.84 – $305.44	$276.81 – $313.47
3 sessions	±3.6% ±$10.71	$284.43 – $305.85	$282.36 – $307.92	$272.36 – $317.93
1 week	±4.6% ±$13.61	$281.53 – $308.75	$278.49 – $311.79	$266.16 – $324.12
2 weeks	±6.5% ±$19.10	$276.04 – $314.24	$271.53 – $318.75	$254.41 – $335.87
3 weeks	±7.7% ±$22.70	$272.44 – $317.84	$266.92 – $323.36	$247.21 – $343.07
1 month	±8.9% ±$26.36	$268.78 – $321.50	$262.26 – $328.02	$239.30 – $350.98

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.27%

Average actual move

6.32%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Median IV change

-15.92%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 09, 2025	±6.27%	+6.32%	1.01×	52.7% → 46.7%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →