Mastercard Incorporated MA 672.68 25.5 3.94%
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $671.42| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.2% ±$8.12 | $663.30 – $679.54 | $661.68 – $681.16 | $654.03 – $688.81 |
| 2 sessions | ±1.7% ±$11.28 | $660.14 – $682.70 | $657.79 – $685.05 | $647.18 – $695.66 |
| 3 sessions | ±2.0% ±$13.56 | $657.86 – $684.98 | $655.24 – $687.60 | $642.48 – $700.36 |
| 1 week | ±2.5% ±$16.65 | $654.77 – $688.07 | $651.08 – $691.76 | $635.97 – $706.87 |
| 2 weeks | ±3.3% ±$22.16 | $649.26 – $693.58 | $644.03 – $698.81 | $624.15 – $718.69 |
| 3 weeks | ±3.9% ±$26.25 | $645.17 – $697.67 | $638.79 – $704.05 | $615.96 – $726.88 |
| 1 month | ±4.8% ±$32.03 | $639.39 – $703.45 | $631.47 – $711.37 | $603.54 – $739.30 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±3.16%
Average actual move
2.84%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-16.71%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2026 | ±2.92% | +4.16% | 1.42× | — |
| July 30, 2026 | ±3.08% | +2.49% | 0.81× | 29.9% → 27.0% |
| April 30, 2026 | ±3.44% | -4.25% | 1.24× | — |
| January 29, 2026 | ±3.52% | +4.29% | 1.22× | — |
| July 31, 2025 | ±2.86% | +1.32% | 0.46× | 24.6% → 21.0% |
| May 01, 2025 | ±2.98% | -0.26% | 0.09× | 27.7% → 22.4% |
| January 30, 2025 | ±3.34% | +3.14% | 0.94× | 25.4% → 20.0% |