MKSI Moves

MKS Inc MKSI 192.27 15.45 8.74%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $192.40

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±3.3% ±$6.35	$186.05 – $198.75	$184.76 – $200.04	$178.78 – $206.02
2 sessions	±4.6% ±$8.83	$183.57 – $201.23	$181.68 – $203.12	$173.33 – $211.47
3 sessions	±5.8% ±$11.12	$181.28 – $203.52	$179.12 – $205.68	$168.70 – $216.10
1 week	±7.3% ±$14.14	$178.26 – $206.54	$175.10 – $209.70	$162.27 – $222.53
2 weeks	±10.3% ±$19.86	$172.54 – $212.26	$167.85 – $216.95	$150.05 – $234.75
3 weeks	±12.2% ±$23.40	$169.00 – $215.80	$163.31 – $221.49	$142.95 – $241.85
1 month	±14.1% ±$27.03	$165.37 – $219.43	$158.65 – $226.15	$135.08 – $249.72

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±9.46%

Average actual move

5.61%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 5

Median IV change

-15.35%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 07, 2026	±11.34%	+2.39%	0.21×	88.9% → 66.0%
February 18, 2026	±9.20%	-4.78%	0.52×	—
August 07, 2025	±9.88%	+10.21%	1.03×	—
May 08, 2025	±9.89%	+4.02%	0.41×	—
February 13, 2025	±6.97%	-6.62%	0.95×	55.7% → 47.1%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →