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Merck & Co MRK 150.36 5.69 3.93%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $150.36
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.4% ±$2.17 $148.19 – $152.53 $147.76 – $152.96 $145.71 – $155.01
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$3.01 $147.35 – $153.37 $146.71 – $154.01 $143.86 – $156.86
3 sessions ±2.5% ±$3.74 $146.62 – $154.10 $145.88 – $154.84 $142.38 – $158.34
1 week ±3.1% ±$4.72 $145.64 – $155.08 $144.59 – $156.13 $140.30 – $160.42
2 weeks ±4.3% ±$6.50 $143.86 – $156.86 $142.32 – $158.40 $136.50 – $164.22
3 weeks ±5.5% ±$8.33 $142.03 – $158.69 $140.00 – $160.72 $132.75 – $167.97
1 month ±6.2% ±$9.31 $141.05 – $159.67 $138.74 – $161.98 $130.62 – $170.10
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±4.90%
Average actual move
2.96%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 6
Median IV change
-27.45%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 29, 2026 ±4.05% +3.83% 0.95× —
August 04, 2026 ±4.83% +0.18% 0.04× 41.7% → 35.3%
April 30, 2026 ±4.58% -1.60% 0.35× —
July 29, 2025 ±5.16% -1.70% 0.33× 42.0% → 27.2%
April 24, 2025 ±5.48% +1.40% 0.25× 44.7% → 32.4%
February 04, 2025 ±5.28% -9.07% 1.72× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →