MTCH Moves

Match Group MTCH 39.16 -1.05 -2.61%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $39.18

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.7% ±$0.67	$38.50 – $39.85	$38.37 – $39.98	$37.73 – $40.62
2 sessions	±2.4% ±$0.93	$38.24 – $40.11	$38.04 – $40.31	$37.16 – $41.19
3 sessions	±3.0% ±$1.17	$38.00 – $40.35	$37.77 – $40.58	$36.67 – $41.68
1 week	±3.8% ±$1.49	$37.68 – $40.67	$37.35 – $41.01	$35.99 – $42.36
2 weeks	±5.4% ±$2.10	$37.08 – $41.28	$36.58 – $41.77	$34.69 – $43.66

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±9.27%

Average actual move

7.92%

Beyond the implied move

0 / 1

Median IV change

-42.99%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
February 05, 2025	±9.27%	-7.92%	0.86×	61.0% → 34.8%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →