MUSA Moves

MURPHY USA INC MUSA 521.89 7.36 1.43%

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Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $521.89

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session	±1.9% ±$9.65	$512.24 – $531.54	$510.30 – $533.48	$501.22 – $542.56
2 sessions	±2.6% ±$13.41	$508.48 – $535.30	$505.61 – $538.17	$492.98 – $550.80
3 sessions	±3.2% ±$16.91	$504.98 – $538.80	$501.75 – $542.03	$485.93 – $557.85
1 week	±4.1% ±$21.45	$500.44 – $543.34	$495.64 – $548.14	$476.17 – $567.61
2 weeks	±5.8% ±$30.11	$491.78 – $552.00	$484.63 – $559.15	$457.59 – $586.19
3 weeks	±6.8% ±$35.54	$486.35 – $557.43	$477.69 – $566.09	$446.74 – $597.04
1 month	±7.9% ±$41.12	$480.77 – $563.01	$470.54 – $573.24	$434.68 – $609.10

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±6.00%

Average actual move

12.28%

Beyond the implied move

1 / 1

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
May 08, 2025	±6.00%	-12.28%	2.05×	—

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →