NET Moves

Cloudflare NET 244.51 -22.07 -8.28%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $243.38

Horizon	Expected move	Typical range	2 in 3 closes	9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings	±10.9% ±$26.51	$216.88 – $269.89	$210.16 – $276.60	$185.60 – $301.16
2 sessions Earnings	±11.8% ±$28.75	$214.64 – $272.13	$207.61 – $279.16	$181.10 – $305.66
3 sessions Earnings	±12.7% ±$30.81	$212.57 – $274.19	$205.46 – $281.30	$177.28 – $309.49
1 week Earnings	±13.6% ±$33.03	$210.36 – $276.41	$202.37 – $284.39	$173.97 – $312.80
2 weeks Earnings	±15.3% ±$37.22	$206.17 – $280.60	$197.41 – $289.36	$164.89 – $321.87
3 weeks Earnings	±16.8% ±$40.79	$202.59 – $284.17	$192.91 – $293.86	$157.66 – $329.10
1 month Earnings	±18.3% ±$44.57	$198.82 – $287.95	$188.06 – $298.70	$149.66 – $337.11

Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. NET reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta

The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move

±11.26%

Average actual move

11.41%

Beyond the implied move

2 / 5

Median IV change

-35.89%

Reaction session	Implied	Actual	Used	ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2026	±11.62%	+5.57%	0.48×	89.7% → 59.6%
May 08, 2026	±11.23%	-23.62%	2.10×	—
August 01, 2025	±11.47%	-3.65%	0.32×	83.6% → 51.7%
May 09, 2025	±10.82%	+6.46%	0.60×	83.9% → 46.8%
February 07, 2025	±11.13%	+17.76%	1.60×	78.7% → 58.7%

Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →