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QXO QXO 12.66 0.95 8.11%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $12.61
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.8% ±$0.36 $12.25 – $12.97 $12.18 – $13.04 $11.84 – $13.38
2 sessions ±4.0% ±$0.50 $12.11 – $13.11 $12.01 – $13.22 $11.54 – $13.69
3 sessions ±5.0% ±$0.63 $11.98 – $13.24 $11.86 – $13.36 $11.28 – $13.95
1 week ±6.3% ±$0.80 $11.81 – $13.41 $11.64 – $13.59 $10.91 – $14.31
2 weeks Earnings ±12.9% ±$1.63 $10.98 – $14.24 $10.60 – $14.63 $9.17 – $16.05
3 weeks Earnings ±14.5% ±$1.83 $10.78 – $14.44 $10.34 – $14.88 $8.76 – $16.46
1 month Earnings ±16.2% ±$2.04 $10.57 – $14.65 $10.08 – $15.14 $8.32 – $16.90
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. QXO reports in 10 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.26%
Average actual move
2.89%
Beyond the implied move
0 / 3
Median IV change
-14.27%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 14, 2026 ±6.88% -2.55% 0.37× 70.8% → 58.2%
August 14, 2025 ±7.72% -0.19% 0.02× 65.2% → 55.9%
November 13, 2024 ±10.17% -5.92% 0.58× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →