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The RealReal REAL 13.0 -0.57 -4.2%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $12.97
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±3.2% ±$0.42 $12.56 – $13.39 $12.48 – $13.47 $12.09 – $13.86
2 sessions ±4.4% ±$0.58 $12.40 – $13.55 $12.28 – $13.67 $11.73 – $14.22
3 sessions ±5.6% ±$0.72 $12.25 – $13.70 $12.11 – $13.84 $11.43 – $14.52
1 week ±7.1% ±$0.93 $12.05 – $13.90 $11.85 – $14.10 $11.01 – $14.94
2 weeks ±10.0% ±$1.29 $11.68 – $14.27 $11.37 – $14.58 $10.21 – $15.74
3 weeks ±12.0% ±$1.55 $11.42 – $14.53 $11.05 – $14.90 $9.69 – $16.26
1 month ±13.9% ±$1.79 $11.18 – $14.77 $10.73 – $15.22 $9.16 – $16.79
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±18.98%
Average actual move
23.99%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 2
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
May 08, 2026 ±18.75% -17.26% 0.92× —
May 09, 2025 ±19.20% -30.73% 1.60× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →