Shell plc American Depositary Shares SHEL 99.09 -1.03 -1.03%
Expected move
November 06, 2026 close · $99.19| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±1.3% ±$1.33 | $97.86 – $100.52 | $97.59 – $100.79 | $96.33 – $102.05 |
| 2 sessions | ±1.9% ±$1.84 | $97.34 – $101.03 | $96.95 – $101.43 | $95.20 – $103.18 |
| 3 sessions | ±2.4% ±$2.33 | $96.86 – $101.52 | $96.41 – $101.97 | $94.23 – $104.15 |
| 1 week | ±3.0% ±$2.95 | $96.23 – $102.14 | $95.57 – $102.81 | $92.88 – $105.50 |
| 2 weeks | ±4.0% ±$3.96 | $95.23 – $103.15 | $94.29 – $104.09 | $90.74 – $107.64 |
| 3 weeks | ±4.7% ±$4.65 | $94.54 – $103.84 | $93.41 – $104.97 | $89.36 – $109.02 |
| 1 month | ±5.3% ±$5.25 | $93.94 – $104.44 | $92.64 – $105.74 | $88.06 – $110.32 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±2.80%
Average actual move
2.84%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 7
Median IV change
-11.84%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2026 | ±2.45% | +2.36% | 0.96× | 30.0% → 27.4% |
| July 30, 2026 | ±3.08% | +2.46% | 0.80× | 31.0% → 26.4% |
| May 07, 2026 | ±2.92% | -3.39% | 1.16× | 32.4% → 26.3% |
| February 05, 2026 | ±3.11% | -5.28% | 1.70× | — |
| July 31, 2025 | ±2.41% | +0.68% | 0.28× | 23.5% → 21.6% |
| May 02, 2025 | ±2.70% | +2.84% | 1.05× | 32.8% → 30.1% |
| January 30, 2025 | ±2.93% | +2.89% | 0.98× | 27.4% → 23.0% |