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Shopify Inc SHOP 148.91 5.16 3.59%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $148.99
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.6% ±$3.84 $145.15 – $152.83 $144.39 – $153.59 $140.75 – $157.23
2 sessions ±3.6% ±$5.33 $143.66 – $154.32 $142.52 – $155.46 $137.47 – $160.51
3 sessions ±4.5% ±$6.72 $142.27 – $155.71 $140.97 – $157.01 $134.67 – $163.31
1 week ±5.7% ±$8.54 $140.45 – $157.53 $138.55 – $159.43 $130.78 – $167.20
2 weeks ±8.1% ±$12.01 $136.98 – $161.00 $134.12 – $163.86 $123.35 – $174.63
3 weeks ±9.5% ±$14.17 $134.82 – $163.16 $131.38 – $166.60 $119.06 – $178.92
1 month ±11.2% ±$16.70 $132.29 – $165.69 $128.13 – $169.85 $113.56 – $184.42
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±12.67%
Average actual move
11.15%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 6
Median IV change
-45.75%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 03, 2026 ±14.87% -8.74% 0.59× —
August 05, 2026 ±13.36% +16.98% 1.27× —
May 05, 2026 ±12.58% -15.62% 1.24× —
August 06, 2025 ±10.53% +21.97% 2.09× —
May 08, 2025 ±11.16% -0.53% 0.05× 81.7% → 54.2%
February 11, 2025 ±13.49% +3.08% 0.23× 100.9% → 42.6%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →