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T-Mobile US TMUS 159.17 4.76 3.08%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $159.41
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.6% ±$2.62 $156.80 – $162.03 $156.25 – $162.57 $153.78 – $165.04
2 sessions ±2.3% ±$3.65 $155.76 – $163.06 $155.00 – $163.83 $151.55 – $167.27
3 sessions ±2.9% ±$4.59 $154.82 – $164.00 $153.93 – $164.89 $149.64 – $169.18
1 week ±3.7% ±$5.84 $153.58 – $165.25 $152.27 – $166.55 $146.98 – $171.85
2 weeks ±5.1% ±$8.19 $151.22 – $167.60 $149.27 – $169.55 $141.91 – $176.91
3 weeks ±6.0% ±$9.60 $149.81 – $169.01 $147.47 – $171.35 $139.12 – $179.70
1 month ±7.2% ±$11.51 $147.90 – $170.92 $145.05 – $173.77 $135.02 – $183.80
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.44%
Average actual move
6.55%
Beyond the implied move
5 / 7
Median IV change
-38.53%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 29, 2026 ±5.71% -0.53% 0.09× —
July 23, 2026 ±5.34% -10.75% 2.01× —
April 29, 2026 ±5.17% +6.13% 1.19× —
February 11, 2026 ±7.17% +5.07% 0.71× —
July 24, 2025 ±5.30% +5.80% 1.09× 37.1% → 22.8%
April 25, 2025 ±4.76% -11.22% 2.36× —
January 29, 2025 ±4.65% +6.34% 1.36× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →