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Texas Roadhouse TXRH 191.79 -4.66 -2.37%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $191.79
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session Earnings ±5.2% ±$9.95 $181.84 – $201.74 $179.30 – $204.28 $170.08 – $213.50
2 sessions Earnings ±5.6% ±$10.80 $180.99 – $202.59 $178.36 – $205.22 $168.41 – $215.17
3 sessions Earnings ±6.0% ±$11.56 $180.23 – $203.35 $177.56 – $206.02 $166.97 – $216.61
1 week Earnings ±6.5% ±$12.39 $179.40 – $204.18 $176.41 – $207.17 $165.76 – $217.82
2 weeks Earnings ±7.3% ±$13.94 $177.85 – $205.73 $174.57 – $209.01 $162.39 – $221.19
3 weeks Earnings ±8.0% ±$15.27 $176.52 – $207.06 $172.88 – $210.70 $159.68 – $223.90
1 month Earnings ±8.7% ±$16.69 $175.10 – $208.48 $171.10 – $212.48 $156.71 – $226.87
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. TXRH reports in 1 session; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±5.73%
Average actual move
5.04%
Beyond the implied move
3 / 5
Median IV change
-34.27%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 07, 2026 ±5.60% -0.08% 0.01× —
May 08, 2026 ±5.49% +12.32% 2.24× —
August 08, 2025 ±5.59% -6.58% 1.18× —
May 09, 2025 ±4.52% +4.79% 1.06× —
February 21, 2025 ±7.43% -1.42% 0.19× 41.4% → 27.2%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →