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Union Pacific Corp UNP 290.16 -7.79 -2.61%

Previous-day view · Fri Nov 6 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 06, 2026 close · $290.88
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.3% ±$3.75 $287.13 – $294.63 $286.37 – $295.39 $282.85 – $298.91
2 sessions ±1.8% ±$5.21 $285.67 – $296.09 $284.57 – $297.19 $279.65 – $302.11
3 sessions ±2.3% ±$6.57 $284.30 – $297.45 $283.05 – $298.70 $276.92 – $304.84
1 week ±2.9% ±$8.35 $282.53 – $299.23 $280.67 – $301.09 $273.11 – $308.65
2 weeks ±4.0% ±$11.78 $279.10 – $302.66 $276.28 – $305.48 $265.72 – $316.04
3 weeks ±4.6% ±$13.47 $277.41 – $304.35 $274.12 – $307.63 $262.40 – $319.36
1 month ±5.4% ±$15.76 $275.11 – $306.64 $271.19 – $310.57 $257.43 – $324.33
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±3.55%
Average actual move
4.11%
Beyond the implied move
4 / 7
Median IV change
-14.79%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
October 22, 2026 ±3.25% +3.55% 1.09× —
July 23, 2026 ±4.05% +4.02% 0.99× —
April 23, 2026 ±3.57% +8.77% 2.46× —
January 27, 2026 ±3.58% +0.72% 0.20× —
July 24, 2025 ±3.05% -4.54% 1.49× —
April 24, 2025 ±3.84% -1.97% 0.51× 33.2% → 24.7%
January 23, 2025 ±3.50% +5.20% 1.48× 26.5% → 25.4%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →