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Urban Outfitters Inc URBN 91.78 5.06 5.83%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $91.45
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.9% ±$1.72 $89.73 – $93.17 $89.38 – $93.52 $87.76 – $95.14
2 sessions ±2.6% ±$2.39 $89.06 – $93.84 $88.55 – $94.35 $86.29 – $96.61
3 sessions ±3.3% ±$3.01 $88.44 – $94.46 $87.86 – $95.04 $85.04 – $97.86
1 week ±4.2% ±$3.82 $87.63 – $95.27 $86.78 – $96.12 $83.30 – $99.60
2 weeks ±5.9% ±$5.37 $86.08 – $96.82 $84.81 – $98.09 $80.00 – $102.90
3 weeks Earnings ±10.8% ±$9.83 $81.62 – $101.28 $79.28 – $103.62 $70.79 – $112.11
1 month Earnings ±11.7% ±$10.72 $80.73 – $102.17 $78.15 – $104.75 $68.92 – $113.98
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. URBN reports in 15 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±10.51%
Average actual move
10.42%
Beyond the implied move
2 / 7
Median IV change
-6.18%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 27, 2026 ±11.57% -5.02% 0.43× —
May 21, 2026 ±10.53% +2.92% 0.28× —
February 26, 2026 ±9.78% +5.04% 0.52× —
August 28, 2025 ±11.99% -10.65% 0.89× —
May 22, 2025 ±9.10% +22.84% 2.51× 66.7% → 85.0%
February 27, 2025 ±10.44% +8.18% 0.78× 72.3% → 43.6%
November 27, 2024 ±10.15% +18.31% 1.80× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →