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Watsco WSO 319.52 7.83 2.51%

Previous-day view · Wed Nov 4 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 04, 2026 close · $318.93
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±2.0% ±$6.31 $312.62 – $325.24 $311.37 – $326.49 $305.41 – $332.45
2 sessions ±2.8% ±$8.77 $310.16 – $327.70 $308.31 – $329.55 $300.02 – $337.84
3 sessions ±3.5% ±$11.03 $307.90 – $329.96 $305.76 – $332.10 $295.39 – $342.47
1 week ±4.4% ±$14.03 $304.90 – $332.96 $301.77 – $336.09 $289.01 – $348.85
2 weeks ±6.2% ±$19.71 $299.22 – $338.64 $294.56 – $343.30 $276.90 – $360.96
3 weeks ±7.4% ±$23.54 $295.39 – $342.47 $289.68 – $348.18 $269.21 – $368.65
1 month ±8.4% ±$26.79 $292.14 – $345.72 $285.47 – $352.39 $262.10 – $375.76
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±6.12%
Average actual move
5.45%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 2
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
February 17, 2026 ±7.19% +1.17% 0.16× —
February 18, 2025 ±5.05% +9.73% 1.92× —
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →