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Aflac Inc AFL 126.24 0.94 0.75%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $126.24
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.0% ±$1.31 $124.93 – $127.55 $124.66 – $127.82 $123.42 – $129.06
2 sessions ±1.4% ±$1.82 $124.42 – $128.06 $124.03 – $128.45 $122.31 – $130.17
3 sessions ±1.8% ±$2.30 $123.94 – $128.54 $123.50 – $128.98 $121.35 – $131.13
1 week ±2.3% ±$2.92 $123.32 – $129.16 $122.67 – $129.81 $120.03 – $132.45
2 weeks ±3.2% ±$4.09 $122.15 – $130.33 $121.18 – $131.30 $117.50 – $134.98
3 weeks ±4.0% ±$5.01 $121.23 – $131.25 $120.00 – $132.48 $115.64 – $136.84
1 month ±4.4% ±$5.52 $120.72 – $131.76 $119.36 – $133.12 $114.55 – $137.93
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±3.91%
Average actual move
3.07%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 6
Median IV change
-31.09%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
November 05, 2026 ±3.53% +0.75% 0.21× 28.4% → 22.4%
April 30, 2026 ±3.27% -2.19% 0.67× —
February 05, 2026 ±3.81% +3.39% 0.89× —
August 06, 2025 ±4.02% +3.43% 0.85× —
May 01, 2025 ±4.46% -4.75% 1.06× —
February 06, 2025 ±4.38% -3.92% 0.90× 31.8% → 18.8%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →