First Solar FSLR 194.51 8.61 4.63% Regime: Trend Down (88%)
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $195.00| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±2.8% ±$5.43 | $189.58 – $200.43 | $188.51 – $201.50 | $183.38 – $206.63 |
| 2 sessions | ±3.9% ±$7.53 | $187.48 – $202.53 | $185.88 – $204.13 | $178.76 – $211.25 |
| 3 sessions | ±4.6% ±$8.96 | $186.05 – $203.96 | $184.32 – $205.69 | $175.93 – $214.08 |
| 1 week | ±5.5% ±$10.83 | $184.18 – $205.83 | $181.76 – $208.25 | $171.94 – $218.07 |
| 2 weeks | ±7.1% ±$13.91 | $181.10 – $208.91 | $177.81 – $212.20 | $165.33 – $224.68 |
| 3 weeks | ±8.8% ±$17.24 | $177.77 – $212.24 | $173.57 – $216.44 | $158.56 – $231.45 |
| 1 month | ±10.7% ±$20.81 | $174.20 – $215.81 | $169.01 – $221.00 | $150.88 – $239.13 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±8.09%
Average actual move
6.04%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 7
Median IV change
-22.49%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 30, 2026 | ±8.10% | -1.41% | 0.17× | — |
| July 31, 2026 | ±7.09% | +2.44% | 0.34× | — |
| May 01, 2026 | ±8.09% | +4.86% | 0.60× | — |
| February 25, 2026 | ±9.31% | -13.61% | 1.46× | — |
| August 01, 2025 | ±6.10% | +5.29% | 0.87× | 66.3% → 51.5% |
| April 30, 2025 | ±8.73% | -8.32% | 0.95× | 71.9% → 55.7% |
| February 26, 2025 | ±9.24% | +6.36% | 0.69× | 77.1% → 54.9% |