Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary STX 557.06 -49.32 -8.13% Regime: Trend Down (95%)
Expected move
November 04, 2026 close · $556.83| Horizon | Expected move | Typical range | 2 in 3 closes | 9 in 10 closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next session | ±3.7% ±$20.49 | $536.34 – $577.32 | $532.22 – $581.44 | $512.84 – $600.82 |
| 2 sessions | ±5.1% ±$28.51 | $528.32 – $585.34 | $522.25 – $591.41 | $495.30 – $618.36 |
| 3 sessions | ±6.3% ±$34.86 | $521.97 – $591.69 | $515.23 – $598.43 | $482.60 – $631.06 |
| 1 week | ±7.8% ±$43.15 | $513.68 – $599.98 | $504.04 – $609.62 | $464.84 – $648.82 |
| 2 weeks | ±10.9% ±$60.69 | $496.14 – $617.52 | $481.71 – $631.95 | $427.31 – $686.35 |
| 3 weeks | ±13.0% ±$72.22 | $484.61 – $629.05 | $467.07 – $646.59 | $404.26 – $709.40 |
| 1 month | ±15.3% ±$85.42 | $471.41 – $642.25 | $450.25 – $663.41 | $375.75 – $737.91 |
Earnings: priced against what happened
Average implied move
±9.19%
Average actual move
6.62%
Beyond the implied move
1 / 6
Median IV change
-22.71%
| Reaction session | Implied | Actual | Used | ATM IV before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 28, 2026 | ±8.30% | +4.51% | 0.54× | 76.6% → 68.3% |
| July 29, 2026 | ±13.38% | +2.29% | 0.17× | — |
| April 29, 2026 | ±11.47% | +11.10% | 0.97× | — |
| July 30, 2025 | ±7.37% | -3.45% | 0.47× | 52.2% → 32.8% |
| April 30, 2025 | ±7.20% | +11.56% | 1.61× | 53.1% → 46.7% |
| January 22, 2025 | ±7.41% | +6.84% | 0.92× | 49.3% → 32.9% |