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Ulta Beauty ULTA 649.8 -10.9 -1.65%

Previous-day view · Thu Nov 5 close. You are previewing the previous trading day. Subscribe to see today live and every other date — Trader is $59/mo. Sign up Sign in

Expected move

November 05, 2026 close · $649.80
Horizon Expected move Typical range 2 in 3 closes 9 in 10 closes
Next session ±1.4% ±$9.29 $640.51 – $659.09 $638.62 – $660.98 $629.92 – $669.68
2 sessions ±2.0% ±$12.93 $636.87 – $662.73 $634.14 – $665.46 $621.99 – $677.61
3 sessions ±2.5% ±$16.24 $633.55 – $666.04 $630.37 – $669.23 $615.17 – $684.43
1 week ±3.2% ±$20.66 $629.14 – $670.46 $624.52 – $675.08 $605.81 – $693.79
2 weeks ±4.5% ±$28.98 $620.82 – $678.78 $613.93 – $685.67 $587.94 – $711.66
3 weeks ±5.5% ±$35.93 $613.87 – $685.73 $605.16 – $694.44 $573.90 – $725.70
1 month Earnings ±10.4% ±$67.84 $581.96 – $717.64 $565.59 – $734.01 $507.17 – $792.43
Size, not direction. The 68% and 90% bands held 66–68% and 89–90% of closes in held-out years 2019–2026. ULTA reports in 20 sessions; only the horizons marked Earnings include its jump. Draw the cone on the chart →

Volatility premium

Beta
The forecast is for the current session, which this plan does not open.

Earnings: priced against what happened

Average implied move
±8.18%
Average actual move
8.42%
Beyond the implied move
4 / 6
Median IV change
-30.51%
Reaction session Implied Actual Used ATM IV before → after
August 28, 2026 ±8.11% -4.18% 0.52× —
June 03, 2026 ±11.03% -4.78% 0.43× —
August 29, 2025 ±6.81% -7.14% 1.05× 48.4% → 29.9%
May 30, 2025 ±7.31% +11.78% 1.61× —
March 14, 2025 ±8.14% +13.68% 1.68× 66.3% → 46.1%
December 06, 2024 ±7.65% +8.99% 1.17× 57.6% → 42.1%
Reconstructed from archived mid quotes; the straddle covers its expiration, not only the reaction session. These are not option returns. Method and missing reports →